Donald Trump on Back and Forth on Immigration
President Trump's Executive Orders on Immigration and Refugees
President Trump signed three executive orders the week of January 23 which offend the dignity and threaten the rights of immigrants and refugees both in the United States and globally. On January 25 at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Trump signed executive orders on border security and interior enforcement. On January 27, he signed an executive order at the Pentagon on refugees and visa holders from designated nations.
Executive Order on Border Security
The executive order on border security, entitled "Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements," contains several sections which undermine human rights, including the expanded use of detention, limits on access to asylum, enhanced enforcement along the US-Mexico border, and the construction of a 2,000 mile border wall.
Construction of a Border Wall and Additional Border Patrol Personnel
Section 4 of the border security executive order directs DHS to take steps to obtain operational control of the US-Mexico border by planning, designing and constructing a wall along the length of the border. It also directs DHS to allocate unused funding for the purpose of constructing a wall and to undertake a comprehensive study on the security of the southern border within 180 days. Section 8 directs DHS to hire an additional 5,000 Border Patrol agents "as soon as practicable."
Response:The construction of a border wall was a main promise of Trump's presidential campaign, despite concerns by experts that the wall would be expensive, difficult to construct, ineffective in deterring illegal migration, harmful to the environment on the border, offensive to personal property rights, and a threat to the economic and social well-being of border communities. President Trump's promise to force Mexico to pay for a wall has created intense tensions in the relationship between these hitherto allied nations.
Adding 5,000 more Border Patrol agents along the border would increase the number of agents to about 25,000, more than triple the number of agents in 2000. The executive order does not explain why the additional agents are needed.
Increased Construction of Detention Facilities and Detention of Immigrants
Section 5 of the order directs DHS to immediately construct detention facilities at or near the southern border and to assign asylum officers and immigration judges to the facilities to conduct asylum interviews and hearings. Section 6 directs DHS to detain noncitizens to the extent permitted by law and to issue guidance on detention authority to terminate "catch and release."
Response: The executive order does not specify the source of funding for the construction of detention facilities, which can cost tens of millions of dollars, money which will go to private detention companies.
The use of detention for asylum-seekers has been shown to limit their access to due process. This policy would also require the detention of women and children, which has been challenged in court. The use of alternatives to detention, particularly community-based models involving nongovernmental organizations, has proven to be more humane, cost-effective, and beneficial to the court system. These programs also afford immigrants better access to counsel and to know your rights presentations.
Limiting Access to Asylum
Section 11 of the order directs DHS to expand expedited removal throughout the country, as opposed to within 100 miles of the border; to apply humanitarian parole authority only on a "case by case" basis; to train all DHS personnel on the unaccompanied alien children section of the Trafficking Victims Protection and Reauthorization Act (TVPRA); and to ensure that credible fear determinations for those in expedited removal or "reasonable fear" determinations for those in reinstatement of removal proceedings are conducted within the "plain language of the provisions."
Response:Studies have shown that expedited removal is often applied incorrectly by enforcement personnel and that asylum-seekers are not allowed to adequately communicate their fear in such situations or, even if they do express fear, are simply denied a credible fear interview, leading to their return and peril. The training of DHS personnel on child provisions is needed, but should be conducted by child welfare experts, who also should assist border patrol in making those determinations. Assessments should be made of all children, including Mexican children.
Executive Order on Interior Enforcement
The second immigration-related executive order, entitled, "Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States," focuses on such issues as sanctuary cities and local-federal immigration enforcement cooperation, enforcement priorities, the reinstatement of the Secure Communities program and Section 287(g) agreements, and an increase in the number of ICE agents.
Sanctuary Cities and Local-Federal Immigration Enforcement
Section 9 forbids "sanctuary" jurisdictions from receiving federal grants, except those that are necessary for enforcement purposes. It directs DHS to designate jurisdictions as "sanctuary" jurisdictions, although there is no definition of what constitutes a "sanctuary." Section 8 directs DHS to enter into Section 287(g) agreements, which permit state and local law enforcement to act as immigration agents and to apprehend and detain immigrants. Section 10 terminates the Priority Enforcement Program (PEP), instituted by the Obama Administration, and re-institutes the Secure Communities program, which would require local jurisdictions to issue "detainers" on unauthorized immigrants in their custody.
Response: Many large cities, such as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, as well as smaller cities and communities, have chosen not to cooperate with federal authorities in enforcing immigration laws, including participation in the Secure Communities and Section 287(g) programs. The executive order will penalize these jurisdictions if they continue not to participate by withholding federal grant money, except money for "enforcement" purposes. This presumes that other funding, such as Community Block grants, could be withheld. To date, cities such as Chicago and New York have stated that they will continue to not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement because they have no legal grounds to hold apprehended person beyond a limited period and because they depend upon the cooperation of immigrant communities to "protect and serve" the public.
Secure Communities and Section 287(g), launched during the George W. Bush administration, have been criticized as eroding cooperation between local law enforcement officials and immigrants and their communities, which would be hesitant to report crimes to law enforcement officials who could detain and deport them. Under the Secure Communities program, immigrants with minor offenses, such as loitering, have been deported. Under Section 287(g), local enforcement officials, untrained in immigration law, have repeatedly violated the civil rights of legal residents.
Enforcement Priorities
Section 5 expands the priority list of noncitizens subject to deportation to anyone charged of a criminal offense, who committed acts that constitute a criminal offense, who engaged in fraud or willful misrepresentation, who has abused any program related to public benefits, who is subject to a final order of removal, but has not departed, or who otherwise poses a risk to public safety.
Response: Despite the vow by President Trump to prioritize criminals for deportation, the executive order is so broad that anyone who committed even a minor offense, such as a traffic violation or jaywalking, could be deported. The order also applies to those who may have misrepresented their status to obtain work. In order to carry out the president's pledge to deport 2-3 million persons he deems as criminals, the Trump administration would need to significantly increase the number of ICE agents and conduct nationwide raids and sweeps.
Increase in ICE Agents
Section 7 authorizes an increase of 10,000 additional ICE agents.
Response: Such an increase would triple the number of ICE agents at a cost of $3.9 billion, likely in anticipation of the launching of more aggressive enforcement activity throughout the country, including raids, which spread fear in immigrant communities.
Combined, the two executive orders on immigration enforcement provide a blueprint to use all available resources and authority to deport as many undocumented persons as possible. This would no doubt lead to an unprecedented separation of families, including families with US-citizen children.
Executive Order on Refugees
On January 27, President Trump signed an executive order entitled, "Protecting the Nation from Terrorist Attacks by Foreign Nationals." The order suspends the issuance of visas to nationals from Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Syria, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen; shuts down the US refugee program for 120 days; reduces the number of refugees to be admitted to the United States in FY 2017 from 110,000 to 50,000; halts the resettlement of Syrian refugees indefinitely; launches a screening mechanism for the entry of foreign nationals; and requires DHS to expedite completion of an entry-exit tracking system.
Suspension of Visas to Certain Countries and Extreme Vetting
Section 3 of the executive order suspends the issuance of visas to countries designated as being detrimental to the interests of the United States for 90 days, listing Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Syria, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen. Section 4 requires implementation of uniform screening standards for all immigration programs, to include assessments such as whether an individual is a risk, will be a positive contributor to the nation, and has the ability to make contributions in the national interest.
Response: The countries listed for suspension of visas are Muslim-majority, while other nations that have experienced terrorism have not been listed. This suggests that the executive order is targeting Muslim immigrants. While some countries are listed, others, such as Saudi Arabia, are excluded, even though the 9/11 hijackers originated from that country. The implementation of a screening program in Section 4 is subjective and could lead to discrimination against certain religions and persons of certain income levels.
Suspension of the US Refugee Program and the Ban on Syrian Refugees
Section 5 of the executive order suspends the US resettlement program for 120 days while a review is made to ensure that refugees are being adequately screened for national security purposes. The program will be restored only if the Secretary of State, the Secretary of DHS, and the Director of National Intelligence agree that sufficient safeguards are in place. The order also reduces the number of refugees admitted into the United States to 50,000 for FY 2017, down from 110,000 set by the Obama Administration. It allows the continued processing of refugees on a "case-by-case" basis and individuals with religious-based persecution claims, who would receive priority once the program is resumed. In addition, it suspends the resettlement of Syrian refugees indefinitely.
Response: According to security experts, refugees who enter through the US Refugee program are the most vetted entrants into the United States, going through multiple security screenings before entry into the country, a process that can take as long as two years. Since the 9/11 attacks, the US has resettled nearly 800,000 refugees through the resettlement program and none have launched a terrorist attack on US soil. The conflation of refugees as threats to national security is a tactic used to reduce the number of refugees admitted to the United States. This decision will have grave ramifications worldwide, as other nations will follow the US' lead in abdicating their legal and moral responsibilities to refugees in the name of national security.
Banning Syrians from resettlement and suspending visa issuance to nationals of Muslim-majority nations will also certainly be used as a recruiting tool by terrorist groups, who will claim these measures prove that the United States is hostile to Islam. Syrian refugees are fleeing the persecution of extremist groups like ISIS and require protection as much as any refugee group at this time.
The exception for those who face religious persecution, according to President Trump, applies to Christian minorities in the Middle East, but also, given the language, could apply to other religious minorities, such as Rohingya in Myanmar, who are Muslim in a majority Buddhist country. While Christian refugees in the Middle East should be protected, either in the region or in a third country, it should not preclude the resettlement of Muslims, who also are top targets of extremist groups. Some faith leaders in the Middle East, including Catholic bishops, oppose the resettlement of their Christian populations, because they fear it will lead to a diminishment of their local Christian communities.
The executive order on refugees, wrapped in national security language, will make the United States less secure. It will give extremist groups a propaganda tool for recruitment; encourage other nations to abdicate their responsibilities to refugees and other vulnerable populations; and will alienate millions of Muslims, both in the United States and abroad, who otherwise would be allies and important sources of counter-terror and law enforcement intelligence.
The three executive orders indicate that the United States is turning its back on its heritage as an immigrant nation and a safe haven for the world's persecuted. This stance will harm its moral standing in the world, and limit its ability to influence other nations to collaborate with it on humanitarian and other initiatives. It will also harm US relations with long-term allies. Congress should resist these orders and deny funding to implement them.
The following are important CMS analyses and resources on these issues, which offer an important, evidence-based counter-narrative to the policies set forth in these executive orders.
President Biden's Executive Actions on Immigration
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. set forth an ambitious immigration agenda in the early days of the Biden-Harris administration, committing both to reverse harmful policies implemented by the Trump administration and to revitalize the US immigration system more broadly. In his first 100 days in office, President Biden articulated his immigration and refugee protection goals and reversed many of his predecessor's policies in a series of executive actions. He also raised the refugee admissions cap for FY 2021 and endorsed the US Citizenship Act of 2021, which would represent the most sweeping immigration reform legislation in decades and create the largest legalization program in US history. President Biden's executive actions address the situation at the southern border, root causes of irregular migration from Central America, impacts of climate change on migration, COVID-19 travel restrictions, and fortification of existing legal immigration pathways, as well as commitments to create new ones.
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Biden's Immigration Agenda: Immediate Actions Taken
Please join the Center for Migration Studies of New York and Zolberg Institute on Migration and Mobility for a panel discussion about the Biden administration's immigration agenda on Thursday, February 4, 2021 from 2:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. (EST). This free, virtual event is open to students, researchers, and practitioners of all disciplines.
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T. Alexander Aleinikoff and Donald Kerwin
Improving the U.S. Immigration System in the First Year of the Biden Administration
The Biden administration will face substantial challenges in putting immigration and refugee policy back on track—not just reversing ill-advised policies of the past four years but also improving a system that was in need of reform well before the current administration took office. In this paper, T. Alexander Aleinikoff and Donald Kerwin highlight a number of reforms that should be prioritized by the Biden administration in its first year.
...
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President Trump Issues Executive Order Temporarily Halting the Issuance of Green Cards
On April 22, 2020, President Donald Trump signed an executive order halting for 60 days the issuance of green cards to certain immigrants, arguing that foreign workers should not compete with US-citizen workers for jobs at a time of a public health crisis and economic downturn. Public officials and immigration advocates expressed strong opposition to the executive order, citing studies that show that immigrants overall contribute to the health of the US economy and complement, not compete with, US workers.
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$2.2 Trillion Appropriations Measure to Address COVID-19 Excludes Certain Immigrants
On March 27, 2020, Congress passed and the President signed a $2.2 trillion supplemental appropriations measure, known as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES, S. 3548), to provide needed assistance to a variety of sectors in the US economy, including hospitals, transportation hubs (including airlines), small businesses, families, and individuals. Immigrants, particularly the undocumented, were largely excluded from eligibility for aid in the package.
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Michele Waslin
The Use of Executive Orders and Proclamations to Create Immigration Policy: Trump in Historical Perspective
This article examines presidential immigration policy making through executive orders (EOs) and proclamations. It finds that Donald Trump's overall volume of EOs has been remarkably similar to that of other presidents, while his number of proclamations has been relatively high. However, his immigration-related EOs and proclamations diverge from those of his predecessors in several ways. Of the 56 immigration-related EOs and 64 proclamations issued since 1945, one percent of all EOs and proclamations have been immigration related, compared to eight percent of Trump's EOs and 2.4 percent of Trump's proclamations. In a sharp departure from previous presidents, a greater share of Trump's EOs and proclamations have been substantive policy-making documents intended to restrict admissions of legal immigrants and increase enforcement along the border and in the interior of the United States. This article explores Trump's unorthodox use of executive tools to make immigration policy, circumventing Congress and even members of his own administration. It recommends that Congress reassert its power over US immigration law and policy.
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Fiona Adamson
Trump's Executive Orders on Migration and Security: Policy Incompetence, Political Theater or Ideological Pivot?
This essay examines the possible motives behind Trump's executive orders related to immigrants and refugees. The author considers whether the orders were issued to address policy gaps, whether they are merely political theater to appease Trump's voter base, and/or whether they serve a broader anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim ethno-nationalist agenda. ...
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Donald Kerwin
Treating Syrian Refugees as a National Security Threat: Do the Means Fit the End?
In this essay, Donald Kerwin, CMS' executive director, seeks to move the nation's debate on the twin imperatives of national security and refugee protection beyond the current politically-charged and misguided dialogue on Syrian refugees....
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CMS Back Pages | Lessons from Post-9/11 Immigration-Related Security Measures
CMS Back Pages seeks to draw attention to past CMS publications and research that speak to pressing public policy concerns. This post addresses the US debate on national security and refugee protection. The recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San...
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Donald Kerwin
How Robust Refugee Protection Policies Can Strengthen Human and National Security
This paper makes the case that refugee protection and national security should be viewed as complementary, not conflicting state goals. It argues that refugee protection can further the security of refugees, affected states, and the international community. Refugees and international migrants can also advance national security by contributing to a state's economic vitality, military strength, diplomatic standing, and civic values. The paper identifies several strategies that would, if implemented, promote both security and refugee protection. It also outlines additional steps that the US Congress should take to enhance US refugee protection policies and security. Finally, it argues for the efficacy of political engagement in support of pro-protection, pro-security policies, and against the assumption that political populism will invariably impede support for refugee protection....
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CMSOnAir | Donald Kerwin
Sep, 09 2016 Posted in CMSOnAirA few days before the 15th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) is releasing a new in-depth report examining refugee protection and national security. The paper, titled "How Robust Refugee Protection Policies Can Strengthen Human and National Security," is part...
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CMSOnAir | Secretary Michael Chertoff
Jul, 26 2016 Posted in CMSOnAirThis episode features former Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Michael Chertoff on the intersection between international migration, refugee protection and national security. Secretary Chertoff discusses the lessons learned from 9/11 terrorist attacks, the security of the US refugee resettlement and visa waiver programs, proposals to bar Muslim immigrants from admission and to build a fence the length of the US-Mexico border, and the need for broad immigration reform.
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Donald Kerwin
National Identity and 3 of the Most Damaging Directives in President Trump's Executive Orders on Immigration and Refugees
Donald Kerwin, CMS' executive director, examines President Donald Trump's "shock and awe" strategy in the forms of multiple executive orders on immigration and refugees. Kerwin argues that these executive orders create three major risks: (1) Many of the most damaging provisions will evade scrutiny in the glare of high profile issues such as building an unnecessary and unsustainable 2,000 mile border wall; (2) The cynical rationale for the orders (security and safety) will actually stick, if repeated enough times; and (3) Some portion of President Trump's agenda may actually be implemented at permanent cost to our nation's well-being, core values, and identity. ...
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Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
Mass Deportations Would Impoverish US Families and Create Immense Social Costs
This paper provides a statistical portrait of the US undocumented population, with an emphasis on the social and economic condition of mixed-status households – that is, households that contain a US citizen and an undocumented resident. The study finds that mass deportations would plunge millions of US families into poverty, cost $118 billion to care for US-citizen children of deported parents, imperil the housing market and reduce GDP.
...
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Border Walls, Deportations and the Final Presidential Debate
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump clashed sharply in their final debate before the November 8th election. Below are responses to three of Trump's immigration claims and proposals during the debate and throughout his campaign. The answers matter since both candidates...
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Migration and Refugee Services/ United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, Center for Migration Studies
Unlocking Human Dignity: A Plan to Transform the US Immigrant Detention System
Unlocking Human Dignity: A Plan to Transform the US Immigrant Detention System addresses one of the most troubled features of the US immigration system and highlights the need for fundamental changes to it. The report recommends that the US immigrant detention system be dismantled and replaced with a network of supervised release, case management, and community support programs, designed to ensure court appearances. As the first step in this process, the report urges Congress to commission a comprehensive study on the benefits, challenges, cost, and time frame for creating a civil immigration detention system. It also proposes that the administration create a full menu of court compliance programs, with varying degrees of supervision, reporting, oversight and monitoring....
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Jeremy Slack, Daniel E. Martínez, Scott Whiteford, Emily Peiffer
In Harm's Way: Family Separation, Immigration Enforcement Programs and Security on the US-Mexico Border
This article presents findings from the Migrant Border Crossing Study, a random sample survey of 1,100 deported migrants in Mexico conducted between 2009 and 2012. It examines the demographics and family ties of deportees, and analyzes their experiences with the immigration enforcement practices and programs that constitute the Consequence Delivery System. The article concludes that these programs—which were intended to increase the penalties associated with unauthorized migration and deter illegal entries—do not have a strong deterrent effect. The paper concludes that border enforcement practices over the past two decades have led to longer stays, the resulting development of strong family and social ties by unauthorized residents to the United States, and a greater resolve to return post-deportation, particularly by migrants with homes and families in the United States....
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Does the United States Need to Invest More in Border Security? Probably Not
In 1990, the total appropriation to the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), including for adjudication of applications, was $1.2 billion. By 2012, appropriations to the two Department of Homeland Security (DHS) enforcement agencies, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration...
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Walter A. Ewing
"Enemy Territory": Immigration Enforcement in the US-Mexico Borderlands
For the last two decades, immigration enforcement along the US-Mexico border has been based focused on the strategy of "prevention through deterrence," which has been characterized by concentrated enforcement personnel and resources directly along the border and expanded detention and deportation of unauthorized immigrants. Despite significant federal spending on enforcement, the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States has tripled since the strategy was introduced in the 1990s. "Prevention through deterrence" has also funneled more migrants into increasingly dangerous border crossing routes and resulted in enforcement excesses by Border Patrol agents. This paper traces the evolution of US border enforcement and recommends greater accountability of enforcement officials as well as shifting the focus of border security toward the apprehension of terrorists and the disruption of transnational criminal organizations. ...
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Tara Magner
Refugee, Asylum, and Related Legislation in the US Congress: 2013-2016
This article describes the significant attempts to enact legislation related to refugees and international migrants since 2013 and examines the reasons why those attempts have not succeeded. It also describes American attitudes toward refugees and assesses whether those attitudes affected the fate of legislation....
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David Hollenbach, S.J.
Borders and Duties to the Displaced: Ethical Perspectives on the Refugee Protection System
This essay proposes some ethical perspectives that can help in the task of reassessing the structure of the global refugee protection system in light of the extraordinarily high levels of refugee movement and forced migration occurring today. ...
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Nicole Ostrand
The Syrian Refugee Crisis: A Comparison of Responses by Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States
This paper looks at the burdens and costs of the Syrian refugee crisis and considers how they have, or have not, been shared by the international community at large, and in particular by Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The degree of protection provided by the four states is modest in relation to that provided by neighboring countries to Syria, and far more could be done. This paper also argues that the international community as a whole has not sufficiently contributed toward alleviating the burden caused by the Syrian refugee influx, in terms of both financial assistance and refugee resettlement. It puts forward two general recommendations to reduce the strain on neighboring countries: increase the level of burden sharing by the international community as a whole and more evenly distribute the burden among industrialized states in Europe, North America, and the Asia Pacific....
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Donald Kerwin
The US Refugee Protection System on the 35th Anniversary of the Refugee Act of 1980
In 2013, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated a project to bring concentrated academic and policy attention to the US refugee protection system, broadly understood to encompass refugees, asylum seekers and refugee-like populations in need of protection. The initiative gave rise to a series of papers published in 2014 and 2015, which CMS is releasing as a special collection in its Journal on Migration and Human Security on the 35th anniversary of the Refugee Act of 1980. This introductory essay situates the papers in the collection within a broader discussion of state compliance with international law, impediments to protection, US protection programs, vulnerable populations, and due process concerns. The essay sets forth extensive policy recommendations to strengthen the system drawn from the papers, legislative proposals, and other sources....
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Melanie Nezer
An Overview of Pending Asylum and Refugee Legislation in the US Congress
There has been no significant legislation related to the asylum process enacted in Congress in nearly a decade. During the past several sessions of Congress, bills have been introduced that would make significant changes to the country's asylum laws and refugee admissions program. This paper provides an overview of the pending legislation and the changes proposed. These bills demonstrate the continued interest of members of Congress in these issues and the need for reform, and they provide an important tool for advocates for education and outreach to Congress and the public....
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Anastasia Brown, Todd Scribner
Unfulfilled Promises, Future Possibilities: The Refugee Resettlement System in the United States
Since World War II, the US domestic resettlement system has evolved from one that responded to crises in an ad hoc manner to one characterized by an expansive and dynamic partnership between the federal government, states and voluntary resettlement agencies. However, more than three decades after the passage of the Refugee Act of 1980, the program suffers from a lack of adequate financial support for transitional assistance and integration services, gaps in coordination and information sharing among participating agencies, and a backlash against the program in certain receiving communities. This paper highlights specific improvements that would address these issues and strengthen the US resettlement system moving forward....
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CMSOnAir | Fr. Thomas Reese, SJ
Jan, 06 2017 Posted in CMSOnAirIn this episode, Fr. Thomas Reese, SJ, chair of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), discusses violations of law and legal procedures by border officials, CBP and USCIS' reliance on virtual interviews, the importance of legal representation in asylum cases, and the detention of mothers and children. Fr. Reese also discusses the global crisis in refugee protection and the proposals to deny the admission of refugees based on religion and nationality.
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Migration Experts Series | Fr. David Hollenbach
Sep, 15 2016 Posted in Migration Experts Series
Father David Hollenbach, Pedro Arrupe Distinguished Research Professor at Georgetown University''s School of Foreign Service and senior fellow at the Berkley Center, discusses his paper, "Borders and Duties to the Displaced: Ethical Perspectives on the Refugee Protection System."
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CMSOnAir | Linda Rabben on Sanctuary
Nov, 23 2016 Posted in CMSOnAirThis timely episode of CMSOnAir features an interview with Linda Rabben, Associate Research Professor at the University of Maryland, on the refuge and protection of migrants and refugees – also known as 'sanctuary.' Professor Rabben traces sanctuary back to its faith traditions and examines its central role in past and present movements that sought to welcome, support, shelter and advocate for vulnerable populations. Her research has just been released in a second edition of her book, Sanctuary and Asylum: A Social and Political History (University of Washington Press 2016) .
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Municipal IDs and State and Local Measures to Regularize the Lives of the Unauthorized
In the last decade, a growing number of US cities have implemented municipal identification cards (IDs). Both advocates and critics call municipal IDs "documenting the undocumented."[1] IDs enable residents to access buildings and services, but are issued by municipalities rather...
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Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
Mass Deportations Would Impoverish US Families and Create Immense Social Costs
This paper provides a statistical portrait of the US undocumented population, with an emphasis on the social and economic condition of mixed-status households – that is, households that contain a US citizen and an undocumented resident. The study finds that mass deportations would plunge millions of US families into poverty, cost $118 billion to care for US-citizen children of deported parents, imperil the housing market and reduce GDP.
...
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Visa Overstays and the Decline in the US Undocumented Population
On January 20, 2016, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) released a report finding that the total undocumented population in the United States has declined gradually over the past few years. The day before, the US Department...
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Robert Warren
New Data and Analysis Confirms Stable Growth in Immigration
This report reviews the latest information available about the growth of the foreign-born population and provides information about recently arrived temporary residents in the population. The report finds that foreign-born population growth, legal and undocumented, as well as new arrivals, have remained fairly stable over the past few years....
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Surge in Immigration in 2014 and 2015? The Evidence Remains Illusory
Introduction In June 2016, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) released a report titled "New Data: Immigration Surged in 2014 and 2015." (Camarota, 2016) The report states that: "The number of legal and illegal immigrants settling in the country is...
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Robert Warren
The Estimated Undocumented Population is 11 Million. How Do We Know?
The purpose of this report is to briefly describe the origin of the widely reported estimate of 11 million and to show why claims of much higher numbers are not credible. Thus the author addresses two questions (1) how was the 11 million numbers derived? (2) could the actual number be 15, 20, or even 30 million? The author provides a simple framework for computing the estimate of 11 million and the potential range of error around each component of the estimate. ...
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Robert Warren
A New Upsurge in Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico Not Likely
On August 13, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) released a report based on data collected in the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS). The report, available at http://cis.org/Immigrant-Population-Hits-Record-Second-Quarter-2015, stated: "After falling or growing little in recent years, the number of Mexican immigrants again seems to be growing significantly." The......
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Robert Warren and John Robert Warren
Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010
In this article, authors Robert Warren and John Robert Warren describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and DC, for 1990–2010. The authors quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and they demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security [DHS], and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999–2001 and then declined rapidly through 2009. The authors provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. The authors' estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. However, their data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error....
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Donald Kerwin, Robert Warren
Potential Beneficiaries of the Obama Administration's Executive Action Programs Deeply Embedded in US Society
This paper offers a statistical portrait of the intended direct beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA), the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and the DACA expansion (DACA-plus) programs. It finds that potential DAPA, DACA, and DACA-plus recipients are deeply embedded in US society, with high employment rates, extensive US family ties, long tenure, and substantial rates of English-language proficiency. The paper also notes various groups that would benefit indirectly from the full implementation of DAPA and DACA or, conversely, would suffer from the removal of potential beneficiaries of these programs. The authors find these populations have become embedded in US society and that an unknown, albeit not insubstantial percentage of both the DAPA- and DACA-eligible may already qualify for an immigration benefit or relief that would put them on a path to permanent residency and US citizenship....
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Robert Warren
US Undocumented Population Drops Below 11 Million in 2014, with Continued Declines in the Mexican Undocumented Population
Undocumented immigration has been a significant political issue in recent years, and is likely to remain so throughout and beyond the presidential election year of 2016. One reason for the high and sustained level of interest in undocumented immigration is the widespread belief that the trend in the undocumented population is ever upward. This paper shows that this belief is mistaken and that, in fact, the undocumented population has been decreasing for more than a half a decade. Other findings of the paper that should inform the immigration debate are the growing naturalized citizen populations in almost every US state and the fact that, since 1980, the legally resident foreign-born population from Mexico has grown faster than the undocumented population from Mexico....
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Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
Beyond DAPA and DACA: Revisiting Legislative Reform in Light of Long-Term Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States
This paper documents dramatic changes in unauthorized immigration to the United States in the past two decades. It presents estimates of the unauthorized resident population derived from American Community Survey data, supplemented by recent estimates produced by Warren and Warren (2013), and statistics from IPUMS-USA. The paper highlights several trends that emerge from this data, including the precipitous decline in arrivals into this population since 2000 (particularly from Mexico), the rapidly increasing average length of residence of unauthorized residents, and the growing salience of visa overstays in constituting this population. The paper provides estimates of those who would be eligible for the Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA) and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programs. However it also looks beyond these programs to make the case that substantial declines in the unauthorized population — a goal shared by partisans on both sides of the immigration reform debate — will require legislation that reforms the legal immigration system, legalizes a large percentage of the unauthorized, and effectively responds to nonimmigrant visa overstays....
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Robert Warren
Democratizing Data about Unauthorized Residents in the United States: Estimates and Public-Use Data, 2010 to 2013
Information about the unauthorized resident population is needed to develop and evaluate US immigration policy, determine the social and economic effects of unauthorized immigration, and assist public and private service providers in carrying out their missions. Until recently, estimates have been available only for selected data points at the national and sometimes the state level. The Center for Migration Studies (CMS) convened a meeting in September 2013 to assess the need for information about the unauthorized resident population. The meeting included leading academics, researchers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that serve immigrants, and local, state, and federal government representatives. Based on the recommendations from that meeting, CMS initiated a project to derive estimates of the size and characteristics of the unauthorized population at the national, state, and sub-state levels, and to make the information readily available to a wide cross-section of users. A series of statistical procedures were developed to derive estimates based on microdata collected by the US Census Bureau in the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS). The estimates provide detailed demographic information for unauthorized residents in population units as small as 100,000 persons. Overall, the estimates are consistent with the limited information produced by residual estimation techniques. A primary consideration in constructing the estimates was to protect the privacy of ACS respondents....
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CMSOnAir | Cecilia Muñoz
Nov, 29 2016 Posted in CMSOnAirCecilia Muñoz, Assistant to President Barack Obama and Director of the White House's Domestic Policy Council, joins CMSOnAir to reflect on the Administration's efforts on immigration during the past eight years. She offers a candid assessment of the major immigration and refugee issues and challenges the Administration faced, from legislative reform to Executive action to immigration enforcement and national security. In this episode, Ms. Muñoz speaks with CMS's Executive Director Donald Kerwin on the implementation of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, Syrian refugee resettlement in the United States, and the government's response to the surge of Central American unaccompanied minors and families into the country.
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Alan M. Kraut
"Make America Great Again"… Again?
In this essay, Alan M. Kraut, University Professor of History at American University, traces the origin of the "Make America Great Again" slogan to nativists of the early 20th century....
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Alan M. Kraut
Nativism, An American Perennial
This essay provides a historical analysis of the nativist rhetoric that has prevailed in American politics, and which became a prominent theme in American political discourse during the 2016 presidential campaign. ...
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Using Science to Define the Undesirable Immigrant
The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) maintains unique archive collections that document US immigration history and policy from the mid-19th century to the present. CMS's From the CMS Archive series attempts to apply archive records, documents, photographs and other...
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Donald Trump on Back and Forth on Immigration
Source: https://cmsny.org/trumps-executive-orders-immigration-refugees/
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